The scenario technique in marketing

Scenarios are ideas of how things could look in the future.
The use of scenario technology helps to better control the future developments and actions of a company. Images of the future can thus be systematically developed and changes can be prepared for well in advance.
Modern marketing currently emphasizes reacting to new market influences. It is precisely this flexible and rapid action in the market that requires particularly intensive planning. The "be prepared for all eventualities" involves thinking through and analyzing different situations. A plan B, of plan B, and a plan B of plan B. Something like this.

A positive projection is also called "best case" and shows the ideal course of events, while a negative projection, the "worst case" projects the worst and most unfavorable assumption.
There are also other scenarios, such as the trend projection - known as the "Most Likely Case". As the name suggests, this represents the most probable course of events that is highly likely to occur.
The analysis and evaluation of these scenarios is used to develop strategies and measures for further action.

• For which areas can this technique be used?

The answer is quite simple, because:
The scenario technique can be used for entire projects, for a phase or even a single task. It can therefore be broken down to the smallest detail.
The forecasting method is also frequently used in politics, science and business for strategic planning.

• Advantages:

Can be used flexibly: Scenarios can be developed at any stage of the project and on almost any topic.

The scenarios explain opportunities and risks and thus support the strategic planning of the entire company. The scenario technique also creates transparency and traceability in the project.

Through the early detection influences on the project, preventive action can be taken.
This means that potential problems can be addressed at the project planning stage and taken into account in the planning.

Wrong decisions can be avoided thanks to the forecasts. They predict in detail how influencing factors will affect the outcome.
But: It is not a crystal ball.
It is not about predicting the future in as much detail as possible, but about combining the most diverse possible developments to create images of the future. Basically, the answer is: "What if...?"

• A funnel on a timeline

A visualization of several alternative ideas of the future and the ways to get there is illustrated with a funnel lying from the starting point.
You can imagine it like this:
The current starting point of your project is the narrow part of the funnel. The situation there is relatively clear and manageable. The view from the current state, i.e. the narrow part of the funnel, becomes wider and wider from the present to the future. This is because unforeseeable influences and developments naturally increase in the future, which is visualized in the growing radius of the funnel.

The structure for developing the scenario technique is divided into 6 phases.

• Phase 1: Description of the current situation

The initial situation and objectives of the project are described in detail here. The most important questions to be answered are
What is the project about?
What are the challenges?
What is the current situation?

• Phase 2: Influencing factors

This step is about collecting influencing factors and determining their influence on the project. Important questions that are worked out here:
What promotes the project?
What inhibits it?
Costs, human resources and competitors?
A mind map is a simple and clear way of working through this phase.

• Phase 3: Figures, data and facts

Concrete figures, data and facts are assigned to phase 2. The aim of this phase is to enrich the model with facts in such a way that a development over time becomes recognizable.

• Phase 4: Scenario development

The heart of the method. Based on the previous steps, two "extreme scenarios" are first developed here: positive and negative. The trend scenario already mentioned is the "business as usual" scenario and therefore plays a less interesting role here. The presentation of the two scenarios should be as clear as possible.

• Phase 5: Evaluate

Which are the most likely scenarios?
Which are extremely unlikely?
This is where a ranking is determined and which scenarios will be used in the final phase.

• Phase 6: Measures

The final phase consists of deriving measures and activities from the probable scenarios. Starting points that influence the outlined development are developed here.
Who can do what specifically to drive the development forward?

Conclusion:
The forecasts provide certainty about the future, because if you are prepared for everything - what could possibly go wrong? in 99% of cases (with really precise planning) you are prepared for all eventualities, but something can always happen that you could not have foreseen. When has the weather forecast, which looks weeks or even months into the future, ever been 100% correct?
As already mentioned, the scenario technique is not a crystal ball that shows you the future. Nevertheless, it can be steered in certain directions and possible scenarios can be considered. Like a crossroads, it points out some paths on which we may be able to recognize obstacles from a distance. You become aware of them even before you have chosen the path.